New marine life models show the predicted habitat suitability between 1990-2090 for six species of sharks and large fishes. The model outputs can be found in a new subcategory in the Data Explorer under “Fish” called “Highly Migratory Species Habitat Suitability – Past and Future”. The data are derived from the Fisheries and Climate Toolkit. The new layers include:
- Bigeye tuna
- Bluefin tuna
- Blue shark
- Shortfin mako
- Swordfish
- Yellowfin tuna
Once users activate a layer, a clock icon appears. Clicking on the clock icon opens a time slider tool that allows users to toggle through each decade of habitat suitability data for each species: 1990, 2000, 2010, 2070, 2080, and 2090.
Like other marine life models viewable in the Portal, the highly migratory species habitat suitability predictions are derived from species distribution models that link observations of a species to the concurrent environmental conditions the species occupied. By linking animal occurrence to the environment over large datasets, the models can predict how suitable a particular habitat is depending on its characteristics such as sea surface temperature and bottom depth. A higher habitat suitability indicates that location is expected to be “better” habitat for that species at that time based on ocean conditions.
By leveraging the animal-environment relationships and climate model outputs that represent the future ocean, the model can project expected changes to a species’ habitat based on those conditions. The habitat suitability product is produced on decadal timescales (using mean of monthly suitability during that decade) to provide estimates of expected climate-induced change to species habitats in the contemporary (1990s to 2010s) and future (2070s to 2090s) ocean.
Future data products within this dataset will include a “projected habitat change” layer that represents the difference between future and past habitat suitability, adding additional species, and predicting species’ habitats at finer timescales. These layers will help users understand where climate change may result in habitat loss or gain for each species.
Additional information about this project and for more details on how these models are produced and used can be found in the layer metadata and on the Fisheries and Climate Toolkit website.
